This opinion piece by Amin Saikal, adjunct professor of social sciences at The University of Western Australia, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern studies at the Australian National University and vice chancellor’s strategic fellow at Victoria University originally appeared in The Sydney Morning Herald on 10 December 2025.
While the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime will reshape the balance of power in the northern Middle East, it is doubtful that Syrians will be entering a time of prolonged peace.
Assad’s fall is a huge gain for the regime’s Islamist opponents and suppressed Syrian people. But it is also a strategic blow for Iran, Russia and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Spearheading the revolt against the regime is the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – a reincarnation of the extremist group Jabhat al-Nusra, which was formed in association with al-Qaeda following the so-called Arab Spring and uprisings against Assad in 2011.
Led by the 42-year-old Abu Mohammad al-Golani, HTS could not have hoped for a more conducive national and regional environment.
Hailing from the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967, al-Golani founded Jabhat al-Nusra in 2012 before serving as a commander in the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). By 2016, though, he had renounced al-Nusra’s ties with al-Qaeda and renamed the group HTS, declaring it to be a moderate Islamist force.
In the days since taking Damascus, al-Golani has depicted himself as the champion of pluralism and tolerance, calling on his fighters to protect state institutions and avoid harming civilians.
He has met with Syria’s incumbent prime minister to discuss a peaceful transfer of power and maintenance of a transitional government until a new, institutionalised Islamist system of governance – in accord with the national conditions and Islamic values – is established.
He has also stressed his personal progression from a jihadi (combative) to ijtihadi (reformist) Islamist. While projecting an image of himself as a moderate political Islamist, in contrast what is practised by the Taliban in Afghanistan and was practised by ISIS, he has asked for friendly relations with Syria’s neighbours and countries around the world.
However, HTS has been designated a terrorist organisation by Australia, the US, the EU, Iran, Russia and the United Nations. Currently, there is a $US10 million ($15.6 million) bounty for al-Golani.
When the 2011 revolt began, Assad confronted the public with force, and with the backing of Tehran, Hezbollah and subequently Moscow, as Russian President Vladimir Putin found it opportune to secure a strategic foothold in the region.
Yet by 2013, the Syrian government was on the verge of collapse. This time, it was largely saved by Iranian financial and military support to the tune of billions of dollars annually. When Assad’s forces crossed Washington’s so-called “red line” of using chemical weapons against their opponents, then-president Barack Obama failed to act. Moscow deployed forces and strengthened its Syrian naval and air bases on the Mediterranean.
Several Syrian cities, including Aleppo, were flattened. Many more thousands of Syrians were killed, injured or made refugees.
While the Assad regime regained control over most of the major cities and coastline, the north-west city of Idlib and the north-east region remained mostly under the control of HTS and the US-backed Kurdish population respectively. Other groups, including ISIS, dominated smaller territories.
In Idlib, HTS quietly consolidated its hold, reportedly with support from Turkey under its moderate Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Finally, last week, HTS began to move. Over the course of several days, it carried out blistering offensives, taking over Aleppo and a string of other cities, including Hama and Homs, before finally reaching Damascus and forcing Bashar and his family to flee.
While Moscow reactivated its airpower against the insurgents, and Tehran expressed a determination to defend Damascus, neither of the allies were able to fully come to Assad’s defence as they had in the past.
As the dust and rubble are literally settling, it is still too early to predict if al-Golani’s promise of moderation will hold. US President Joe Biden has welcomed the end of the Assad regime, but noted the uncertainty about what this new direction means for the US and its regional allies, Israel in particular.
In the days since HTS forces claimed Damascus, Israeli forces have strengthened their position in the Golan Heights, moved closer to the Syrian border by crossing into the demilitarised buffer zone in violation of a 1974 peace agreement, and carried out airstrikes on Syrian army air bases.
The crumbling of Assad’s regime creates a critical hole in Iran’s “axis of resistance” and deprives Russia of an important foothold in the Middle East. While Ankara and Jerusalem may cheer from opposite regional sidelines, and Washington may smell a strategic advantage, President-elect Donald Trump has said that the US should keep out of the conflict.
Only time will tell how this will all play out and whether HTS and its diverse affiliates will be able to stabilise and securitise what is a Balkanised Syria, and if al-Golani’s promise of doing things differently will actually hold. Currently, though, all indicators point towards neither Syria nor the region becoming an oasis of stability and peace any time soon.